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Star Trek Into Profits

May 17, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Box Office Preview

Weekend of May 17, 2013

Stephen H Koontz

It’s mid-May, schools are beginning to take their summer break, the weather is hot and the movies are getting hotter. “Star Trek Into Darkness” will no doubt keep the box office alive this weekend. It’s the only wide release; so it won’t have any major competition but “Iron Man 3” and “The Great Gatsby” will continue to bring in a large audience.

Star Trek Into Darkness

Star Trek Into DarknessSequels of successful franchises tend to do better than their predecessor (Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, Dead Man’s Chest, The Dark Knight, and many more). Since the Star Trek reboot was lauded both by critics and fans, there is little reason “Star Trek Into Darkness” won’t continue the trend. The fans have waited four years for the sequel and the franchise’s audience has grown far larger than Trekkies and sci-fi enthusiasts. More things in the movie’s favor: Director JJ Abrams has kept his reputation and name alive and well since the first entry, most notably for the announcement of him helming the next Star Wars trilogy. The movie has also shown a strong marketing effort, creating hype and effectively displaying the new plot and its villain (“Sherlock’s” Benedict Cumberbatch), giving people a reason to see the movie, more than because it’s a sequel.

The movie isn’t getting as strong of critical and fan praise as the first; but still very respectable – 86% critics approved and 90% fans liked it, on rottentomatoes.com. These are the fans who have seen pre-screenings or Wednesday night’s midnight showing, who tend to give higher ratings.

Clearly there are plenty of reasons to think this will be a big release and early numbers show the movie won’t be a box-office disappointment. Nearly 75% of all ticket sales on fandango.com are for “Star Trek Into Darkness”, of course this is a little skewed, since it’s the weekend’s only major release. And it is a major release, with 3762 locations ready to show the movie in the US. To also make it clear it will be a domestic success are last week’s international numbers – most territories are up 70% from “Star Trek”.

Fantasy Prediction: #1; with $91M (3-Day) and $112 (4-Day – Opens Thursday).

The sequel to the successful and popular reboot will bring in a huge weekend. Released by Paramount at 3,762 theaters.

Limited Releases

Frances Ha

Noah Baumbach is a popular indie-film director (Margot at the Wedding, Greenberg, The Squid and the Whale) and writer (Moonrise Kingdom, Fantastic Mr. Fox, etc.). He directs the poor woman’s Kate Winslet, Greta Gerwig, for the second time in what some critics have said is his best work yet. It has a unanimous critic approval rating, with a 95% on rottentomatoes.com). Fans have also enjoyed it with a 7.6 rating on imdb.com. Mostly from the festival circuit.

Fantasy Prediction: Might slip into the top 20; between $170K and $190K. It opens in only a few theaters and most likely expand over the next month with solid word of mouth.
Released by IFC at 4 theaters.

Erased

Former music video director Philipp Stolzl will make another poor attempt to establish himself as a notable filmmaker. While the movie has notable actors like Aaron Eckhart and Olga Kurylenko, they aren’t enough to create any interest in this poorly reviewed movie (26% on rottentomatoes.com) that looks generic in its marketing and premise.

Fantasy Prediction: Out of the top 20; with $80K to 90K. This movie will be erased from relevance pretty quickly.
Released by Radius-TWC at 51 Theaters

Aurungzeb

A hindi movie with a decent domestic theater count will do well with its Hindi audience but will likely go unnoticed by many beyond that. It comes from an unproven director and only mildly popular Indian actors.

Fantasy Prediction: Just out of the top 20; with $100K – 150K. Not enough interest for general audiences to be a breakout hit.
Released by Yash Raj at 62 theaters

Pieta

This Korean film could be the dark horse (among limited releases) of the weekend. It has gotten decent reviews and has played well with screenings and in other countries. The director, Ki-duk Kim, has a bit of a following and the movie looks consistent with the tone and style of his previous films.

Released by Drafthouse; No theater count.

Black Rock

Director Katie Aselton (The Freebie) tries out a whole new genre, horror/thriller, and it doesn’t look like a successful move. While it has likable stars (Kate Bosworth, Lake Bell, and Aselton herself), it’s not a good genre for her, plus marketing and previews look cliche. She might want to stick to directing and acting in comedies.

Released by LD Entertainment; No theater count

The English Teacher

Popular television director Craig Zisk (Weeds, Parks & Rec, Nip/Tuck) is giving the movies a try with this low budget, big actress (Julianne Moore) film. According to critics, it’s not a good move, with a 38% rating.
Released by Cinedigm Entertainment; No theater count

Augustine

This French 19th century true-story has a very limited audience and comes from first- time director Alice Winocour who is little known for her short films.
Released by Music Box films; No theater count

Becoming Traviata

This French documentary covers the preparation of Natalie Dessay for her role in the Verdi opera. This has no domestic box office appeal. It can only hope to appeal to a Netflix audience among the other documentaries that don’t make it at the box office. Released by Distrib Films; No theater count

Bidder 70

A strange documentary that will have a great chance to be seen by an audience… with streaming options, not at the box office.
Released by First Run; No theater count

Holdovers

  1. Star Trek Into Darkness (New) $91M (3-Day) and $112 (4-Day)
  2. Iron Man 3: $31.9M; – 56%. Star Trek will be its first major direct competition and it will continue to fall fast because of that. But a solid third weekend nonetheless.
  3. The Great Gatsby: $26M; -48%. It had a great opening; but one that will likely be front-loaded. However no direct competition this weekend will keep it stable.
  4. Pain and Gain: $3.1M; -38%. Its hold won’t be as nice this weekend; but there is still an audience.
  5. 42: $3.1M; -30%. It’s still baseball season and people still like this movie.
  6. The Croods: $2.9M; -17%. I feel bad for families, as this is still their only option.
  7. Oblivion: $2.5M; -39%. Like when Iron Man 3 came out, its relevance will dwindle.
  8. Peeples: $2.2M; -52%. The only reason it won’t fall harder is a lack of comedy options.
  9. Mud: $1.8M; -32%. It did not have a strong enough expansion last week.
  10. The Big Wedding: $1.5M; -40%. It started off weak but has shown decent holds since.

Limited Release Holdovers

Moderate releases “The Company You Keep”, “Renoir” and “The Sapphires” are all maintaining passable per-theater averages but are still slowly on their way out.

Last week’s holdovers “The Iceman”, “Kon-Tiki”, “Love is All You Need”, and “What Maisie Knew” had decent expansions and might see their numbers continue to rise this weekend, with “Love is All You Need” being the least likely.

Several movies, most notably “At Any Price”, “Cinco De Mayo: La Batalla” and “Kiss of the Damned”, tried expanding but were met with meager results. They won’t likely see any more expansions.

Filed Under: Box Office, Movie Blog, Predictions, Weekly Predictions Tagged With: ,

Who is this Gatsby Anyhow?

May 10, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Box Office Preview for the Weekend of May 10, 2013

One of the biggest questions of May is “How will ‘The Great Gatsby’ fare with summer audiences?” A good question after it was delayed from December 2012. The second weekend of May is typically slow because the first week is always host to a blockbuster; so with “Iron Man 3” bringing in the second best opening weekend ever we likely won’t see this trend break. One advantage the movies released this weekend have is they are good counter programming, with “Peeples” being the other wide release.

The Great Gatsby

The-Great-Gatsby3Director Baz Luhrmann has perfected the mix of unconventional storytelling, modern music, and extravagant production design. Knowing this it seems like “The Great Gatsby” makes perfect sense for such a director. However it’s not the type of movie that typically does well in the summer. It was delayed from a very crowded Christmas 2012. It is a movie that would have done better during that time but Warner Bros. smartly delayed, likely fearing it would get lost in the medley of high-profile movies being released. While May 10 is a quieter weekend it still may not have been the perfect choice. Yet it does have the advantage of being released to little direct competition. Also, with a star like Leonardo DiCaprio playing the iconic titular character, people will show.

While the book is widely known and adored it looks like one disadvantage is oddly Luhrmann, with the fear of him putting too much of his own spin on the work, which will upset passionate fans of the book. With a Rottentomatoes.com rating of 48% it’s doing just that. Most of the negative reviews don’t complain about the twisted take on the work. To me, this doesn’t make sense as there have been three other adaptations that have their own take. It’s a movie, not a direct translation of the book, so it should have a unique style and interpretation, that’s the appeal and advantage of the art form.

Fantasy Prediction: #2; with $28M. This adaptation to a popular novel will bring in older audiences who are not as interested in explosions.
Released by Warner Bros. at 3,535 theaters.

Peeples

peeples-MovieTyler Perry recently added his name to this title that he didn’t direct, hoping to bring in more money. But a Tyler Perry movie just came out at the end of March and Tyler Perry movies that don’t star him as Madea typically gain less interest. His casts also don’t hold much weight, as there has never been a clear correlation, among the varying levels of popular stars. So even with the likable Craig Robinson in the lead he is in no way a box office draw. The movie will attract a niche audience on the first weekend, especially since it’s the only major comedy out; but will likely sink fast with stronger comedies coming soon.

Fantasy Prediction: #3; with $14M. With no other major comedies and with Tyler Perry’s name attached the movie will at least bring double-digits but won’t go past $20M. Released by Lionsgate at 2,000 theaters

Limited Releases

Aftershock

This Eli Roth production and starrer won’t make waves. At best it will be a limited release hit. There isn’t much interest in it, with less than 2K people wanting to see it (rottentomatoes.com) and with little coverage it has on sites such as comingsoon.net and variety.com.

Fantasy Prediction: Out of the top 10; with $620K. Eli Roth has his fans but the generic look of the previews won’t interested much more.
Released by Radius-TWC at 110 theaters

No One Lives

Any buzz for this film has died. It has a grim title, no stars, low critic score (29% on rottentomatoes.com) and nearly all of its shares have been sold on hsx.com ($0.93).

Fantasy Prediction: Just out of the top 20; with around $100K. This movie will do better with VOD and streaming options.
Released by Anchor Bay Films at 53 theaters.

The Girls in the Band

This long-delayed documentary about female jazz and big band instrumentalists will do okay in very limited release but it’s something that won’t gain popularity until VOD/ Online rentals.

Fantasy Prediction: (Unsure until theater count released). Released by Artist Tribe/One Step (Theater count not yet released)

Java Heat

With Mickey Rourke and Kellan Lutz this movie had a chance to make waves, but IFC has little confidence after the movie scored low ratings at most venues and it hasn’t gotten any better with reviews and fans on most Web sites.

Fantasy Prediction: $8 – 14K. Released by IFC at one theater.

Sightseers

This movie is a little more in line with the IFC brand and it’s been better received by audiences and critics; but with no stars and a director unknown to American audiences it will have to be a real crowd pleaser for this film to expand to more than a handful of theaters.

Fantasy Prediction: $20 – 35K. Released by IFC at two theaters.

Stories We Tell

This documentary has scored well at film festivals and it’s getting solid reviews. It’s also from up-and-coming director Sarah Polley; but one who hasn’t proven to be a box-office draw, especially with it being a documentary about her family.

Fantasy Prediction: $20 – 25K. Released by Roadside Attractions at two theaters.

Vesus and Serena

Another documentary, but this one at least has a familiar subject. The film seems to focus on “adversity” the tennis stars faced in 2011, as opposed to their entire story. The latest trailer would suggest otherwise, perhaps trying to appeal to more general audiences, rather than only tennis fans. This hasn’t worked as it seems very few people know about the film (less than 100 people “want to see it” on rottentomatoes.com)

Fantasy Prediction: Unsure until theater count. Released by Magnolia (Theater count not yet released).

Holdovers

  1. Iron Man: $91M; -48%. With solid word-of-mouth and minimal competition expect a similar fall to last year’s “The Avengers” (-50%).
  2. The Great Gatsby (New). $28M
  3. Peeples (New). $14M
  4. 42: $3.7M; -39%. With baseball season in full swing and no change in direct competition this steady decliner will stay just that.
  5. Pain & Gain: $3.6M; -52%. With much of the Iron Man demand worn off this mediocre performer won’t fall as hard this weekend.
  6. Mud: $2.9M; +36%. Expands to 835 theaters and will likely keep a similar per theater average, allowing it to move up a few spots.
  7. The Croods: $2.8M; -34%. With continued absence of family fare, this animated feature will continue its slow decline.
  8. Oblivion: $2.4M; -58%. As expected, most people forgot about this movie once Iron Man came out. Well Iron Man is still out, so don’t expect this one to bounce back.
  9. The Big Wedding: $2M; -47%. Nothing will change for this middling performer.
  10. Oz The Great and Powerful; $1.25M; -41%. After ten weeks this epic may stay in the top ten yet again.

Limited Release Holdovers

As seen in the above holdover list “Mud” will expand into wide release this weekend and its outlook is promising with strong reviews and word-of-mouth. However it won’t stay in the top ten for long.

Surprise under-performers “Disconnect” and “The Company You Keep” didn’t get the per-theater average needed to expand. Expect a sharp decline after last weekend’s soft declines.

“The Sapphires” didn’t expand again, but their low drop last weekend means they are still relevant this weekend.

With last-minute publicity “The Reluctant Fundamentalist” expanded from 3 to 35 theaters last weekend, but only managed a 2.4K per-theater average. There will be another expansion but not likely much of a push from distributor IFC.

“Kon-Tiki” faired better after having a similar expansion. Expect further expansions but nothing too noteworthy, as its audience is pretty limited.

“Renoir” hasn’t made an impression yet in very limited release and with small expansions on the horizon this trend won’t change much.

In only four theaters last weekend’s newbie “The Iceman” performed decently and will likely expand to dozen more theaters this weekend.

Many of the other newcomers didn’t perform well, most notably “Cinco De Mayo: La Batalla”, “Kiss of the Damned”, “The Happy House” and “Post Tenebras Lux”

In a single-theater release “What Maisie Knew” did well and will likely expand, as did the other one-theater release “Free the Mind” but with less impressive numbers.

Finally, “Trance”, “To the Wonder” and “Arthur Newman”, movies with high-profile directors and stars, have now become irrelevant and have no chance of recovery.

Filed Under: Box Office, Fantasy Advice & Tips, Movie Blog, Predictions Tagged With: , ,

Last Week of April: The Big Pain or Gain?

April 24, 2013 By Leave a Comment

pain-and-gainBox Office Preview for the Weekend of April 26, 2013

The weekend before the summer movie season is historically a dead zone and a spot for studios to drop a no-confidence picture that will disappear in a week. Who remembers #1 movies “Obsessed” or “RV”? Several movies released this weekend could fit that profile. But in recent years studios have taken a chance and succeeded, with films like “Fast Five” and even the remake “Nightmare on Elm Street” (both were still hit hard the next week). Lionsgate and Paramount are hoping to continue this upward trend with “The Big Wedding” and “Pain & Gain”, respectively.

Pain & Gain

Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne Johnson headline “Pain & Gain”. Their stock has risen in the past few years. Since his Oscar nomination for “The Departed” Wahlberg has headlined box office and/or critical hits like “The Other Guys” ($119M), “The Fighter” ($93M), “Contraband” ($66M) and most notably “Ted” ($218). Johnson has recently been the savior of questionable franchises, starring in the most successful Fast and Furious movie, “Fast Five” ($209M), he lifted “Journey 2: The Mysterious Island” and last month helped “GI Joe: Retaliation” ($111M). With all this box office muscle leading into “Pain & Gain”, you would assume it’s a surefire hit, especially when Michael Bay is at the helm, a director known for big studio hits (the exception being “The Island”.) With such box office bravado, why would a movie clearly geared towards a similar audience to “Iron Man 3” get released a week before? Is there really no interest in this movie? The energetic trailer looks like a throwback to Bay’s “Bad Boys” days that clearly defines the story and shows off its characters‘ antics. According to www.rottentomatoes.com 96% of audiences (15K+ polled) want to see this movie. Maybe Paramount scheduled this release before they knew what they had. Or maybe they hope for similar success to their release pattern of “Mission: Impossible 4” ($209M) when it gained buzz, opening before “Sherlock Holmes 2” and “Alvin and the Chipmunks 3”; and a week before “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “The Adventures of TinTin” and still came out on top that week. Even with “Iron Man 3” releasing next weekend audiences still may surprise everyone and it keep its numbers lofty.

Fantasy Prediction: #1; with $35M. Word of mouth may keep it strong, but “Iron Man 3” will weaken any chance of it making more than $120M total.
Released by Paramount at 2,900 theaters

The Big Wedding

If it were the 90s this film would be huge. Robin Williams, Susan Sarandon, Robert DeNiro, and Diane Keaton star in this ensemble about a, you guessed it, big wedding. While it is just in time for wedding season and these names are still relevant, with some

audiences, there seems to be very little buzz surrounding the picture. It’s not even in the top 100 searched movies on imdb.com, which is sad for a movie releasing in a couple of days in 2,500 theaters. Lionsgate and the marketing shows a generic paint- by-number movie trying to be modern with a less-than-modern cast portraying unlikable characters. This is director Justin Zackham’s first big movie and the only thing that could elicit any drawing power from him is his script for “The Bucket List” ($93M). Furthermore, it’s been proven big-star ensemble casts aren’t a sure thing, see last year’s “What to Expect When You’re Expecting” ($41M). That movie opened on a similar date, with Cameron Diaz, Jennifer Lopez, Dennis Quaid, and Chris Rock, to only $10.5M. There are some successes like 2009‘s “It’s Complicated” ($112.7M), with Meryl Streep, Steve Martin, and Alec Baldwin. The one thing it does have going for it is its lack of competition. There are no nationwide romantic comedies in the top ten and the only romantic comedy releasing next week is the delayed Pierce Brosnan starrer, “Love is All You Need”. Sadly that movie looks far more enjoyable but will make far less money.

Fantasy Prediction: #3; with $14M. Wedding season and lack of competition will keep this generic ensemble from being a full-fledged bomb.
Released by Lionsgate at 2,500 theaters

Limited Releases

Arthur Newman: Likable British stars Emily Blunt and Colin Firth star in this non-British romantic road trip comedy. The film looks well shot, as it’s helmed by debut director, Dante Ariola, who comes from the music video scene. So far there is little buzz and its opening weekend will clearly be a less stellar debut than former music video directors like Spike Jonze and David Fincher.

Fantasy Prediction: Around #15; with $840K. Mediocre reviews tell me there is little chance this has legs, even with a likable cast and story.
Released by Cinedigm Entertainment at 250 theaters.

Mud: The film stars back-in-good-graces Matthew McConaughey, and has garnered a solid response from critics, film festivals and early screenings. It will likely open very limited and potentially expand nationwide. It could take a similar route to last year’s “Killer Joe” ($2M); but “Mud” is likely more palatable to a larger audience, thus bringing in better numbers.

Fantasy Prediction: Unsure until theater count is released. It will garner a high per- theater average.

Kon-Tiki: The movie was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film at The Academy Awards this year and was well-received at domestic film festivals. Its foreign box office shows it has potential with $16.7M so far. It is being released in only two theaters this weekend; but with Weinstein Company as its distributor and sturdy word-of-mouth it has potential for a lengthy run.

Fantasy Prediction: $50 – 60K. Released by Weinstein Company at 2 Theaters

The Reluctant Fundamentalist: I’m unsure why there is so little buzz surrounding this film. It stars Kate Hudson, Kiefer Sutherland and Liev Schreiber and it’s directed by the popular Mira Nair who has directed mild independent box office successes that went against their genre’s typical numbers, like The Namesake ($13.5M), Monsoon Wedding ($13.8M), and Amelia ($14.2M). It’s starting off small but it needs some serious word- of-mouth to make a splash in upcoming weeks and stay consistent with Nair’s record.

Fantasy Prediction: $40 – 50K. Released by IFC at 3 Theaters.

At Any Price: Zac Efron might be the only drawing power for this film, and his fans are anything but consistent. It doesn’t have any buzz and hasn’t scored well at film festivals.

Fantasy Prediction: Less than $100K. Released by Sony Classics (Theater count not yet released)

Midnight’s Children: This Hindi picture shot in Sri Lanka will do substantial business with its fan base, like the recent “Dabangg 2” ($2.5M); but like that picture, it will die off quickly.

Fantasy Prediction: Less than $1M. Released by Paladin (Theater count not yet released)

King’s Faith: While faith-based films can bring in some box-office numbers this one comes one week after “Home Run”, which might overshadow any chance for this movie getting noticed.

Fantasy Prediction: Less than $50K. Released by first-timers Waking Giants (Theater count not yet released)

An Oversimplification of Her Beauty: This obscure animated film has very little box office potential and won’t find an audience until its inevitable Netflix Instant appearance.

Fantasy Prediction: Less than $40K. Released by newcomers Variance Films (Theater count not yet released)

Graceland: I can’t see any box office draw for this foreign language (Tagalog) and generic storyline with no stars or proven director.

Fantasy Prediction: Less than $30K. Released by Drafthouse (Theater count not yet released)

Tai Chi Hero: Director Stephen Fung is known for creating cheap martial arts movies, but he does have a niche fan base. Of course, that fan base is either not in the US or they wait for VOD and streaming options.

Fantasy Prediction: Less than $10K. Released by Well Go USA (Theater count not yet released)

Holdovers

  1. Pain & Gain (New)
  2. Oblivion: $20.35M; -45%. The Sci-Fi movie received mixed reactions from both critics and fans, but people who want to see it will go this weekend, before the release of “Iron Man 3”.
  3. The Big Wedding (New)
  4. 42: $12.4M; -30%. Strong word-of-mouth will keep this baseball movie from fading fast.
  5. The Croods: $6.9M; -25%. This popular animated film still has no direct competition.
  6. The Place Beyond the Pines: $4.4M; -10%. The Derek Cianfrance film shouldn’t fall too hard after a strong limited release and last week’s expansion.
  7. GI Joe: Retaliation: $2.9M; -49%. Too much direct competition to keep it from falling.
  8. Scary Movie 5: $2.87M; -53%. There isn’t anything to give this sequel traction.
  9. Olympus Has Fallen: $2.7M; -40%. Its fade will increase due to so much current fare directed at its target audience.
  10. Oz The Great and Powerful: $1.9; 36%. “Evil Dead” and “Jurassic Park 3D” will drop harder, allowing “Oz” to stay at the 10 spot.

Limited Release Holdovers

There was and is very little good news for last weekend’s limited holdovers.

Last weekend’s new limited releases “Home Run”, “Filly Brown” and “Lords of Salem” were all mediocre performers, “Filly Brown” being the best. There likely won’t be any major expansions for the three films.

Danny Boyle’s “Trance” had a surprising poor performance last weekend and might get kicked out of the top 20.

Robert Redford’s “The Company You Keep” didn’t do well either, but will expand and stay in the top 20.

“The Sapphires” were on a good run but slowed down last weekend and it doesn’t look like they will get much more attention.

“To the Wonder” is a surprise bomb from art house icon Terrence Malick, as it managed to earn less in its second weekend after expanding from 17 theaters to 49.

The documentary “Girl Rising” managed only $580/theater last weekend after expanding to 170 theaters. It likely won’t be expanding any more.

Filed Under: Box Office, Movie Blog, Predictions Tagged With: ,

Fantasy Box Office Preview

January 17, 2013 By Leave a Comment

I would normally start a mid-January box office preview post off with a shot at the poor movies being released to theaters right now, but everyone knows what January is. It is a movie dumping ground.

But this January feels different. Not due to the movies coming out, but because of what is available in theaters right now. The local theater is still packed with awesome movies. If you found yourself too busy during the holiday season to get out to the theater, you’ve got some catching up to do. Between The Hobbit, Django, Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty the theaters have some quality flicks to offer their patrons.

Now, on the subject of NEW releases, well that is a different store.

The Last Stand

The weekends biggest release The Last Stand also happens to be the (hopefully) triumphant return of one of the 80′s & 90′s biggest box office draws, Mr. Arnold Schwarzenegger. In The Last Stand, Schwarzenegger plays a local sheriff who stops an escaping bad guy by using lots of big guns and witty one liners. Yep.

In Studio War’s fantasy movie leagues, The Last Stand is being auctioned at an average price of 20 million. This shows that what fantasy owners don’t think that Arnold comeback will be a total bomb, it also isn’t a movie to put your studio’s success on. With a production budget of 30 million, The Last Stand should be able to recoup budget but don’t expect much more.

Broken City

Broken City looks to be a “What Were They Thinking” decision by the usually top notch Mark Wahlberg (who is box office gold at the moment) and Russell Crowe. Broken City had a production budget of $56 million and has been selling in leagues in the 20-25 million range. Personally, I think if you get your 20-25 million back, be happy. If this movie recoups it’s budget I will be shocked.

MaMa

Mama is the latest release by director/producer Guillermo del Toro, which he produced this time around. A horror movie with del Toro’s name on it always has a fighters chance. I am picking this movie to be the weekend wild card, just don’t know what to expect. With a production budget of $15 million, Mama should have a great chance of being profitable but Studio Wars owners have been picking the movie up in the low 20 million range, making the movie a bit more risky.

Ryan’s Box Office Picks for Jan 18, 2013

  1. Zero Dark Thirty $16
  2. The Last Stand    $15
  3. Broken City          $12
  4. Mama                    $10
  5. Django                     $7
  6. The Hobbit              $7
  7. Les Miserables       $6
  8. A Haunted House $6
  9. Gangster Squad     $6
  10. Lincoln                    $5
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Box Office Preview – Weekend of January 4

January 2, 2013 By Leave a Comment

January is here.  Usually, in terms of the box office, that means a few new films of questionable caliber struggling to find their place among the Christmas blockbuster holdovers and the smaller Oscar-bait pictures going into wide release.  This year looks to be no different, so as you prepare for the first weekend of the Studio Wars winter season, let’s take a look at the field that hopes to ring in the new year with a bang.

The New Releases

Texas Chainsaw 3D will be the lone new wide release on the schedule this weekend, as the long-running horror franchise seeks to lure New Years revelers with the promise of splattery blood and gore in the third dimension.  2003 saw The Texas Chainsaw Massacre relaunch the series with a $28 million opening, and the 2006 prequel hauled in $18 million in its first weekend out of the gate, but these types of horror series tend to have diminishing returns, and those first two were October releases as well, when the Halloween timeframe sets the stage for these sort of gore-fests.  This time out, consider anything over $10 million a win.  Ensemble thriller A Dark Truth also opens this Friday, but the release looks to be limited, so don’t expect it to be a factor on the weekend charts.

The Holdovers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey continued its three-week run at the top last week with a $31 million haul, and I expect that to continue this week, though with a lower return.  Look for it to win the weekend yet again, this time with numbers more in the $20 million range.  Look for other week-two films like Les Miserables, Django Unchained, and Parental Guidance to have similar small drop-offs.  The real X-factor in the week will be the performance of two expanding releases that have performed well in their limited openings – tsunami survival tale The Impossible and the Matt Damon/John Krasinski gas-drilling drama Promised Land.  The Impossible got a strong marketing blitz over the holidays, and stands the better chance of the two to crack the top five this weekend.  If you picked it up on the cheap in a closing holiday league, keep a close eye on the numbers this weekend.  All in all, look for a relatively quiet, unsurprising week at the cinema.

Predicted Weekend Top 5

  1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – $20 million
  2. Les Miserables – $15 million
  3. Django Unchained – $14 million
  4. Texas Chainsaw 3D – $10 million
  5. The Impossible – $9 million

 

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Studio Wars Fall Auction Preview (And Cheat Sheet)

September 28, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Studio Wars Fall Draft Preview

Whew. That was quite a summer. From Avengers’ improbable domination of the film world, to the pleasant box office surprises of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Ted and Magic Mike, the summer had a little bit to offer for everyone. Typically the fall season is a little slower, but this fall and winter looks to be packing a pretty big punch.

Need Even More Help? Download Studio Wars Fall 2012 Cheat Sheet and get tons of info on all of this Fall’s movies including: Relsease Date, Wide or Limited, Stars, Director, 1st 2nd or 3rd in a trilogy, Previous movies box office, Stars, Stars recent box office, Director and the Directors recent box office.

After spending the last three weeks locked inside the Studio Wars war room, we’ve put together our official rankings and cheat sheet for this fall’s season. We’ll go through the top blockbusters that are sure to bring your studio some money, as well as try and pick out a few sleepers that have the potential of putting you over the top. So here we go!

Top Hits

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey:

Prediction: 355 million
Opening Shot: It comes as no surprise that The Hobbit is the fall season heavy hitter. Peter Jackson could have cast Pee Wee Herman as Bilbo Baggins and people would turn out in droves to see this movie. The three LOTR movies averaged a domestic haul of 344 million, and I see The Hobbit coming in lower than Return of the King’s 377 million, but higher than Two Tower’s 342 million.

Twilight Breaking Dawn 2

Prediction: 270 million
Opening Shot: The TV show Happy Days is, above all else, responsible for giving us the phrase “Jumping the Shark”. That moment when a show or movie ceases to matter and has begun its descent into the depths. That phrase has had a good run over the years, but it’s about to be eclipsed by Breaking Dawn 2’s, “Tackling the Cougar”. No other scene in a trailer ever is more ridiculous than Bella channeling her inner Ray Lewis and taking down a wild cougar with a textbook tackle. That being said, everyone’s 12 year old sister and her 60 Facebook friends will go see the final chapter of this vapid series and it will make a ton of money.

Skyfall

Prediction: 180 million
Opening Shot: Despite only mediocre reviews, and an evil plot to
own “water”… Quantum of Solace managed to edge out Casino Royale by a million dollars in total box office revenue. Skyfall looks epic in scale, and with Javier Bardem assuming the evil role that suits him best, it should be the best Blond Bond movie to date. It comes out the same weekend as Spielberg’s Lincoln, but the first trailer was underwhelming and Daniel Craig will beat the pants off Honest Abe.

Taken 2

Prediction: 125 million
Round one of this series was a bit of an unexpected guilty pleasure and ended up making a very solid 145 million at the box office. The plot looks to be almost exactly the same, but I think the market for people who want to see Liam Neeson dismantle bad guys like a house of cards is pretty healthy. Despite having no competition, I still think Taken 2 takes a small step back and comes in a little under the first one, but still well over 100 million.

Rise of the Guardians

Prediction: 140 million
Rise of the Guardians is the next Dreamworks Animation film and while I’m not that overly excited for it, it’s positioned as the Thanksgiving kids movie so that will give it a boost. Dreamworks’ last four animated features didn’t gross less than 148 million so it’s hard to bet against Rise doing much worse.

Django Unchained

Prediction: 120 million
You have to hand it to Quentin Tarantino, he’s become the master at the pre- sell and being able to sell a concept before we’ve seen a second of footage
by coming up with pretty outlandish movie premises. You can’t argue with the results, with Inglorious Basterds raking in 120 million, and both Kill
Bill movies making a combined 136 million. With the addition of Leonardo DiCaprio, Tarantino might have found the perfect recipe to repeat his success with Basterds. It will go up against Les Miserables, but the market for both of those movies couldn’t be more different. Women will see Les Mis, and men will go see Django.

Wreck It Ralph

Prediction: 110 million
After the smashing success of Tangled, Disney Animated Studios is back at it again, but this time with a brand new story. Wreck It Ralph has spaced itself nicely between the other kids movies; the challenge will be finding an audience for a new story. So far it’s been hard to bet against animated movies.

Paranormal Activity 4

Prediction: 95 million
I am not sure why people keep going to see these movies, but they do, over and over again. Both the first and third iterations made over a 100 million and when it costs 5-15 million to make one of these, they will keep making them until people stop going. Be prepared for Paranormal Activity 12, it’s coming.

Here Comes the Boom

Prediction: 90 Million
Every time I am with friends and this trailer comes on, people groan. But they did the same thing for Zookeeper, Grownups and Paul Blart, all movies that made a good chunk of change. There is a very large Kevin James fan following out there, and the physical comedy of Here Comes the Boom could be fantastic. Now is not the time to overlook KJ.

Les Miserables

Prediction: 85 million
It’s no secret, Les Mis is making its play as the epic Christmas movie and is desperately hoping that mom and grandma are able to drag grandpa, dad and the rest of the crew to see this movie, rather than Django. Russell Crowe isn’t much a box office draw anymore, but he plays the bad guy which will appeal to a lot of Crowe haters out there. The heart of this movie is Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway, who have both been doing well lately with Jackman pulling Real Steel into the black (a superhuman feat if there ever was one) and Anne Hathaway more than pulling her weight in The Dark Knight Rises. Like I said above, even though it’s releasing with Django, the audiences couldn’t be more different so if it doesn’t do well, it won’t be because Django is killing it.

Lincoln

Prediction: 80 million
The first trailer for Lincoln is out, and reaction has been mixed. It releases the same weekend as Skyfall, which doesn’t bode well for a fast start. It might be able to sustain a following for several weeks with minimal drop off, but it really needs more awards buzz for Daniel Day Lewis to fuel that fire. Spielberg’s last two movies failed to break the 100 million mark, and Lincoln appears to be following that trend.

Jack Reacher

Prediction: 80 million
Which Tom Cruise will we get in Jack Reacher? Rock of Ages and Knight and Day Cruise, or Mission Impossible and Valkyrie Cruise? Being that it’s an action movie, I’m inclined to lean towards the latter, but it doesn’t help that this movie already has bad press upon his casting. The character in the books is well over six feet tall, and Cruise is well under. It says more about the public perception of Cruise than anything else that there was public outcry, but it will play into the decision. Oh, and a little movie called The Hobbit releases the weekend before, so…

This is 40

Prediction: 65 million
This is 40 puts Judd Apatow back in the Director’s chair for the first time since Funny People bombed. Luckily he is going back to what works in Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann, in essentially a sequel to Knocked Up, which pulled in 148 million domestically. This is really the only R-rated comedy on the board this fall, but it comes out Christmas weekend, which is typically not a good release date for your raunchy movies. It’s going to struggle to find an audience between The Hobbit, Jack Reacher, Les Mis and Django Unchained all releasing within a week of it.

Frankenweenie

Prediction: 65 million
Let’s be honest, the name along is worth 10 million at the box office, so Tim Burton has that going for him. It’s been a bit up and down for the Director as Alice in Wonderland was a big surprise hit and landed in the top 10 movies all-time until Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises dropped it to 12th. Then came Dark Shadows, which bombed at 79 million despite a very expensive marketing campaign. The best comparison to Frankenweenie is Corpse Bride, which banked 53 million back in 2005. Since it’s about a dog, I see Weenie doing better than Bride and giving Burton a chance to wash the Dark Towers failure taste out of his mouth.

Alex Cross

Prediction: 60 million
This movie is by far the hardest to predict. Tyler Perry has a niche, and he works that niche perfectly and has become one of the biggest moneymakers in Hollywood. But he does it by making smaller budget ensemble movies that make a consistent 35-70 million. So based on history it’s hard to pin him on any more than that, despite going outside his comfort zone with Alex Cross.

Sleepers:

These movies are flying under the radar, and may even be limited releases, but according to our crack team of movie experts they have a great chance of being breakout hits.

Seven Psychopaths:

Call it the Woody Harrelson effect; everything he’s touched lately has been gold. All four of his latest movies turned a profit which should help negate the opposite of that, which is the Colin Farrell effect, where everything he touches wilts and dies. Director Martin McDonough made the fantastic, but woefully under-watched In Bruges (also starring Farrell), and Seven Psychopaths has the same energy and style. It releases in a bit of a dead period so if you can buy low the rewards may be big.

Argo:

The marketing campaign is really heating up on Ben Affleck’s latest Director/Actor effort about a real life story of hostages rescued by a fake film crew. It releases the same week as Seven Psychopaths, but has enough of a historical pull that people (okay, your old uncle, parents and grandparents) might hop on board.

Zero Dark Thirty:

This movie is going to get buried since it releases on 12/21 along with every other big movie this fall, but if it can find some share of voice and sell itself as sort of a follow-up to The Hurt Locker (it’s directed by Katheryn Bigelow) it just might be able to carve out a little spot for itself. At this point though I’d call it a deep sleeper.

Parental Guidance & Quartet:

One of these movies will almost certainly be this Fall’s Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which caused grandma and grandpa to empty their pockets faster than the nickel slots at your local casino. Guidance features Billy Crystal and Bette Midler in
a “Grandparents” comedy, while Quartet is Dustin Hoffman’s directing debut and takes a more serious bent. If I had to take a guess, I’d pull for Billy Crystal.

Monsters, Inc. 3D

Some of these re-releases have done poorly, but a couple like Beauty & the Beast raked in 47 million and made some fantasy studios a pretty penny. Monsters, Inc. was a huge blockbuster when it released in 2001 to the tune of 255 million, which makes it an excellent breakout candidate. The sneaky part is that if you look closely at the Christmas holiday, this is the only kid’s movie out. There is literally not another option on Christmas

Busts:

Cloud Atlas

When the first trailer that you release is six minutes long and ridiculously confusing as your two main actors play about 12 different characters, it’s not a good thing. It’s hard to go against America’s sweetheart, Tom Hanks, but being that it releases in the dead-zone of the end of October I just can’t get on board.

Flight

Again, how do you go against Denzel? But as I look closer at this movie about a story of a pilot who saved a plane, but may have been drunk, or on drugs or something, it’s just not that compelling. Denzel has the ability to carry a movie, but this is just too much.

Red Dawn

This is the kind of movie that studio executives drool over, young “hip” cast that they can build a franchise out of. Unfortunately, this seems to backfire almost every time. Red Dawn was a popular movie back in the 80’s, and Chris Hemsworth has an impressive track record of popular movies recently, but is he a big enough star to carry a remake that no one interested in seeing his movies has even heard of? I don’t think so.

Need Even More Help? Download Studio Wars Fall 2012 Cheat Sheet and get tons of info on all of this Fall’s movies including: Relsease Date, Wide or Limited, Stars, Director, 1st 2nd or 3rd in a trilogy, Previous movies box office, Stars, Stars recent box office, Director and the Directors recent box office.

Filed Under: Featured Slider, Movie Blog, Season Predictions Tagged With: , , , ,

Weekend Box Office Preview: September 28-30, 2012

September 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment

FINALLY CREATIVITY HAS COME BACK TO HOLLYWOOD!(said like The Rock)

So I am actually rather excited for Looper, this looks like a potentially fantastic and creative movie. After a Summer full of sequels (at least for most wide released movies), Fall is a time for studios to release their more risky but original ideas.

After a few sub-par weeks for the box office results it looks like this weekend could finally start to turn that trend around. Last weekend saw all three top movies fail to break 14 million. Right now Looper is projected for a solid 20 million+ across the web while the other big release, Hotel Transylvania, being projected in the 19-20 million range.  The wide release that is not looking quite so hot is Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Won’t Back Down which is floating in the 4-8 million range.

Looper stars Joseph Gordon-Levitt as a hit-man for the mob in the year 2047. Time travel has not yet been invented, but 30 years in the future it has and has been immediately outlawed. The mob however has found that time travel is a great way to dispose of their unwanted targets and sends their targets 30 years back in time where a hit-man, called a Looper (JGL), waits for and disposes of the targets. The problem arises when Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s future self (Bruce Willis) is sent back in time by the mod to be disposed of and close of all evidence of the process.

The synopsis of this movie has the making for a fantastically fun time at the theatre and hopefully will not dissapoint on creativity, action and story.

Hotel Transylvania is an animated release starring the recently down on his box office luck Adam Sandler. Dracula is now a dad and has decided to open up a lavish 5 star hotel where his daughter and other more famous monsters can live it up without being hassled by humans. However, Dracula’s problems begin when an average human guys stumbles upon his hotel and develops a crush on Dracula’s daughter.

Hotel Transylvania is a bit of a wild card in my eyes. With 5 kids of my own, this movie looks a bit to scary to bring my younger ones (5 & 2), while my older ones (11 & 13) are not as into the animated movies as they used to be. I have a feeling that this could be the case for a lot of potential movies goers and that families will probably end up saving their money for more family friendly movies. That being said, I do like the story idea here and think it should make for a fun movie.

Here are my predictions for the weekend of September 28th – 30th box office results (in millions):

Studio Wars’ Preditions

  1. Looper: $26
  2. Hotel Transylvania: $17
  3. End of Watch: $8
  4. House..End of the Street: $7
  5. Trouble with the Curve: $7
  6. Won’t Back Down: $5
  7. Finding Nemo 3D: $4
  8. Resident Evil: $4
  9. Dredd: $4
  10. The Master: $2
HSX Current Predictions:

  1. Looper:
  2. Hotel Transylvania:
  3. End of Watch:
  4. House..End of the Street:
  5. Trouble with the Curve:
  6. Won’t Back Down:
  7. Finding Nemo 3D:
  8. Resident Evil:
  9. Dredd:
  10. The Master:
FilmGo:

  1. Looper: $25
  2. Hotel Transylvania: $22
  3. Trouble with the Curve: $7.9
  4. End of Watch: $7.7
  5. House..End of the Street: $5.2
  6. Finding Nemo 3D: $4.2
  7. Won’t Back Down: $3.5
  8. The Master: $3.2
  9. Dredd: $2.4
  10. Resident Evil: $2.2
Filed Under: Weekly Predictions Tagged With: , ,

Weekly Preview: Yawn

August 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment

I think we’ve officially reached the end of the summer.  Since The Avengers kicked off May with, well, a vengeance, each week moviegoers have been treated to highly-promoted, highly-anticipated films.  Even when there was a relative lull in the choices, it was due to a big blockbuster needing a little room to breath.  Not so with this week, as last weekend’s primary choice, Expendables 2, had an underwhelming debut and looks destined for the 2012 also-ran scrap heap.  Yet we have three movies with very low expectations coming out, which means, like I mentioned already, that autumn has arrived.  The only one that should challenge Expendables 2 for top spot is Premium Rush, a fun-looking film with up-and-coming star Joseph Gordon-Levitt, who made a splash as Robin (oops, spoiler alert if you’re the one person who has yet to see TDKR) this summer.  Gordon-Levitt has also had prominent roles in other recent big films, like Inception, 50/50, and the highly anticipated forthcoming Looper.

Most people will remember him from his first major TV role in 3rd Rock from the Sun, or his first shot at movie stardom in 10 Things I Hate About You, where, interestingly enough, he starred opposite Heath Ledger, who would later become The Dark Knight’s unforgettable nemesis, The Joker.   But what you may not know is that Gordon-Levitt was actually a child star long before that, with spots in Family Ties (as seen here), Murder She Wrote, and Quantum Leap.  A much more straight-laced actor than Ledger, he doesn’t yet have the star power to draw the kind of crowds that other actors could draw, so Premium Rush seems set to produce respectable yet uninspiring numbers this weekend.

The other two wide releases, Hit and Run and The Apparition, will likely bomb in theaters, particularly in the latter case since Apparition is only releasing into 810 theaters.
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Weekend Predictions by the Studio Wars Team

Matt

  1. Expendables 2: $18 Million
  2. Bourne Legacy: $11 Million
  3. ParaNorman: $9 Million
  4. The Campaign: $8 Million
  5. Premium Rush: $6 Million

Darius

  1. Expendables 2: $15 Million
  2. Premium Rush: $12 Million
  3. Bourne Legacy: $9 Million
  4. ParaNorman: $8 Million
  5. The Campaign: $7.5 Million

Ryan

  1. Expendables 2: $15 Million
  2. Premium Rush: $12 Million
  3. ParaNorman: $8 Million
  4. Bourne Legacy: $8 Million
  5. Timothy Green: $6 Million
Filed Under: Predictions, Weekly Predictions Tagged With: , , ,

Weekly Preview: Chuck Norris, Rambo, and Terminator Walk into a Bar…

August 17, 2012 By 1 Comment

Stop me if you’ve seen this one.  Yes, Expendables, the coolest idea ever for an action movie, now has a sequel, and the early returns (65% on RT) seem to indicate it’s a reasonable success.  Some of the most glaring weaknesses of the first one have been remedied here. Chuck Norris and Jean-Claude Van Damme were added to the cast.  Stallone gave up the director’s chair.  Bruce Willis and Ahnold signed on for more than just cameos this time around.  The first one made $100 million, while this one seems likely to edge its predecessor out a bit, which means this probably isn’t the last you’ll see of Barney Ross and Lee Christmas.  The only thing standing between us and Expendables 5 is a nursing home.

Also coming out this weekend are a couple family flicks: ParaNorman and The Odd Life of Timothy Green.  The latter should appeal to families young and old as a feel-good flick, while the former brings with it more of a Tim Burton-esque feel, which may scare away some of the younger kids.  ParaNorman is getting really good reviews thus far, while its rival is not faring so well.  ParaNorman should end up close to $20 million for the weekend, while Timothy Green should barely crack double digits.  The other wide release is Sparkle, Whitney Houston’s final film.  It should compete with the two kids’ movies.

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Weekend Predictions by the Studio Wars Team

Matt

  1. Expendables 2: $40 Mil
  2. ParaNorman: $21 Mil
  3. Bourne Legacy: $18 Mil
  4. Sparkle: $15 Mil
  5. The Campaign: $10 Mil

Darius

  1. Expendables 2: $38 Mil
  2. Bourne Legacy: $20 Mil
  3. ParaNorman: $18 Mil
  4. The Campaign: $15 Mil
  5. Sparkle: $14 Mil
Filed Under: Predictions, Weekly Predictions Tagged With: , , , ,

Weekly Preview: Bourne Again

August 10, 2012 By Leave a Comment

We’re nearly there.  Only one more week left before all of the theatrical remakes, reboots, redos, restarts, retreads, and renewals will finally be done for the summer and largely for the year.  In recent years, particularly during the summer months, there has been a noticeable increase of movies which merely serve as either a sequel to a prior film, or as a (supposedly) necessary updated version of an older movie (though the age of those movies seems to be getting younger each year).  No less than 14 such films will have graced the screens this summer by the time Labor Day arrives.  Until some original ideas flood back into Hollywood, we’re stuck with merely adequate popcorn fare like this weekend’s Bourne Legacy, an unasked-for, Matt Damon-less installment in the Bourne series.  Hollywood’s motto now appears to be “Pentalogy or Bust”.  Which brings us to today, with the aforementioned Bourne making it six straight weeks to release a sequel or re-boot.

The first Bourne opened to $27 million, the third to $69 million.  It seems reasonable to assume that this fourth portrayal will initially beat out the first one, but likely won’t reach the success of the (current) penultimate Ultimatum.  The critical reviews have been largely mixed, with an RT score of 59%.

Also releasing this weekend are The Campaign, Will Ferrell’s foray into political satire, and Hope Springs, Tommy Lee Jones’ attempt at showing a softer side.  The latter is getting particularly good reviews, and could be to the end of the summer what the Exotic Marigold Hotel was to the start of it: a film older moviegoers will flock to en masse. Even if Hope Springs doesn’t open to huge numbers, it should have solid staying power as older generations of movie fans don’t tend to see movies on opening weekend as much as younger fans. As for The Campaign, it has an outside shot of upsetting Bourne Legacy for the top spot this weekend. In the midst of an election season that once again seems stuck in the gutter of negativity, people are looking for a light-hearted take on all things political.

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Weekend Predictions by the Studio Wars Team

Matt

  1. Bourne Legacy: $35 Million
  2. The Campaign: $32 Million
  3. TDKR: $18 Million
  4. Hope Springs: $10 Million
  5. Total Recall: $7 Million

Darius

  1. Bourne Legacy: $38 Million
  2. The Campaign: $33 Million
  3. TDKR: $19 Million
  4. Hope Springs: $15 Million
  5. Total Recall: $13 Million

Ryan

  1. Bourne Legacy: $43 Million
  2. The Campaign: $26 Million
  3. TDKR: $25 Million
  4. Hope Springs: $15 Million
  5. Total Recall: $9 Million
Filed Under: Predictions, Weekly Predictions Tagged With: , , , ,
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